US election – who has a crystal ball?

Mr. Grossman, what is your prediction: Who will win the US presidential election?

I’m careful not to make a prediction. Too many smart people have guessed wrong in the past, and this time the odds are probably closer than ever.

After the election of the first black president, Barack Obama, is the majority of the US population ready to elect a woman to head the state?

The experts speculate a lot about this, and the opinion polls vary. The question certainly plays a role among macho men who “don’t want to be ruled by a woman,” neither at home nor in the White House. But the question doesn’t seem nearly as important as it was in 2016, when Trump won against Hillary Clinton.

Will African Americans, migrants and women possibly decide the election this time?

Women’s voices can certainly be crucial, especially those of women of color; White women’s votes for Harris were not so overwhelming. The question of abortion is crucial here. Trump, who is unprincipled himself, even on this issue, initially took a strong position against abortion and appointed chief justices who also thought the same. When he noticed how this was hurting him, especially with women, who are more likely to vote than men, he tried to backtrack a little. Maybe too little and too weak. What is always important and often a decisive factor is the number of African Americans who, despite all previous disappointments, cast their vote and tended to vote for Democrats. One can only hope that they are not robbed of their vote by all sorts of evil tricks from the Republicans. 81 percent of black women and 69 percent of black men support Kamala Harris, against Trump and his party, which is based on racism. These are not as overwhelming numbers as in previous elections, even though Harris’ father is from Jamaica.

Latinos and other immigrants also lean strongly toward Harris because Trump described them – especially Mexicans – as robbers, criminals and rapists. In his election rally in Madison Square Garden, dripping with racism, he used stupid jokes to cover all minorities, blacks, Latinos, Puerto Ricans, Jews and even refugees from Haiti, with inhumane lies. Nevertheless, Harris is only likely to achieve a smaller majority with Latinos than the Democrats have so far. This is partly because Biden has treated them hardly better than Trump, but also partly because some of them have been able to “integrate” to some extent linguistically and economically and fear changes. How large the majority of blacks and Latinos are who end up voting for Harris could be the deciding factor. It depends particularly on the many Latinos in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the blacks in Georgia and North Carolina and the Arab-Americans around Detroit in Michigan. These are precisely those states that are still very shaky.

Trump’s election campaign built on racist and xenophobic resentments among those Americans whose ancestors had fled to the USA a few generations ago and therefore see themselves as “the real” Americans. The similarity of the game’s methods with such feelings can be observed in almost all European countries in recent years, including Germany. This is frightening and reminiscent of Hitler’s campaign against Jews and Sinti and Roma – right up to the murderous end.

Does the queer community play a role?

Queer Americans rarely play a major role; They are not that numerous – and live mainly in states like New York and California, i.e. where Harris has a secure footing anyway.

USA election

Stephanie Schoell

The elections on November 5, 2024 are one of the most important directional decisions of this time for US citizens and the rest of the world. »nd« reports on the mood and problems in the country, on candidates and their visions. All texts about the US election can be found here.

Is it to be feared, as some predict, that a civil war will break out if the election results do not go according to the supposed will of the majority of Americans?

This is certainly something to be feared. The Trump people could unleash fatal unrest by challenging the electoral votes in some states with Republican governors. Because in the event of an uncertain result, the lower house decides where each state, large or small, has one vote – and the Republicans hold the majority. Or, if none of this works, well-armed clubs and storm departments are waiting. And the mob that would like to use AK 15s and similar weapons to bloodily eliminate blacks, Latinos, students, trade unionists and other democrats and left-wing liberals from their path to rule.

Will the election result really bring about drastic changes in the domestic and foreign policy of the USA or will everything remain the same?

Who has a crystal ball? It can be assumed that – if Harris wins – the foreign policy course will remain the same, including all the dangers. Domestically, economic crises could require new tactics. It remains to be seen whether the lukewarm capital-friendly policy will continue. Harris’s friendship with the billionaire Morgan family and the party’s dependence on similar families such as the Clintons and, unfortunately, Obama, are worrying. As for Trump: He never had a clue when it came to foreign policy – but he had the worst advice. It would be all too nice to believe that, as he says, he would achieve peace in Ukraine in one day. But how? And as a close friend of Benjamin Netanyahu? Domestically, he almost openly threatens a variant of fascism: the crushing of all opponents or their imprisonment, whom he alternately insults as fascists, Nazis, communists, Bolsheviks, prostitutes, anti-Americans or idiots – whatever comes to mind in his ignorant mind. And for which he receives ignorant applause.

Why is the left in the USA so weak? This time there isn’t even a candidate like Bernie Sanders running.

Unfortunately, what many of us hoped for is that the various committed groups and organizations would come together and fight for a common genuine left-wing politics, especially to end the wars worldwide and to spend trillions of dollars on weapons for the many real needs of the people to use, did not come about. The opposing forces are much richer and stronger. Behind it are powerful corporations like Amazon and Apple, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos… a coterie of billionaires, environmental destroyers, opinion makers.

You are of Jewish origin; your grandparents fled to the USA from pogroms in Tsarist Russia at the end of the 19th century. To what extent will the war in the Middle East influence Americans’ voting decisions?

Among Jewish Americans, especially younger ones, strong, understandable emotional connections to Israel are increasingly giving way to disgust at the mass murder and total destruction in Gaza, West Bank Palestine and now Lebanon. Netanyahu’s allies are alarmed by growing solidarity with the Palestinians. Extremely reactionary super-rich people who can easily donate millions of dollars are trying, together with other right-wingers and Christian fundamentalists, to stifle outrage over war crimes in Gaza. A large proportion of progressive Jews live in states like New York, California, Illinois, which will certainly vote against the Republicans.

And to what extent does the Ukraine war play a role?

When it comes to Ukraine, opinions in the USA, Germany and many other countries are sharply divided – between those who are shocked by the many deaths and destruction and who blame Russian President Vladimir Putin alone or almost solely for this and those who , who are also shocked, but see the main blame in the deliberate advance of NATO led by the USA, which also wants to wrest Georgia and Moldova from Russian influence. But for most Americans, Ukraine is a long way away. “Our boys don’t need to fight there,” they say.

There were and are no such large peace demonstrations in the wars of the 21st century as there were against the Vietnam War in the late 1960s/early 1970s. Why not?

Yes, there were huge demonstrations against the Vietnam War, but also against the Iraq War, which unfortunately failed to materialize for a long time. Billions of dollars have been lost as a result of these wars that could have benefited schools, health and elderly care, culture and infrastructure.

How do you explain the phenomenon of enthusiasm for Trump, even though everyone knows that this is a self-centered man and that he simply lacks the intellectual qualifications for such an important office?

Not everyone sees it that way. Millions are enthusiastic about him. Some believe that, precisely because he comes across as so uncouth, he would be the most effective answer to the wealthy academics and intellectuals of the East and West Coasts of the United States who struggle with gender debates and have little interest in the real problems of working people. This particularly affects the Rust Belt, the oldest industrial region in the USA, around the Great Lakes, where heavy industry is based, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, the wobbly states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. A lot of people are for Trump for similar reasons as many in Germany are for the AfD or in Austria for the FPÖ and in France for Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. Demagogues, with the help of some mass media and, increasingly, “democratic” parties, have managed to place the blame for the deteriorating economic situation and hollowed-out social services not on the main culprits, the super-rich, but on the weakest, lowest members of society: the refugees want what everyone wants: a decent job, a safe roof over their heads, enough to eat, adequate medical treatment and equal educational opportunities.

As a deserter from the US Army, you were only able to re-enter the USA in 1994, after half a century of exile in the GDR. Can you vote and will you do so?

I remained a US citizen and can vote. Somehow I didn’t get a ballot paper for postal voting this time. Maybe my luck? Unfortunately, I can hardly vote for the Green Party, Jill Stein, or Cornel West, also a fighter for blacks and workers, as that would benefit Trump in the end. I would vote for Harris – moderate in terms of domestic policy, but dangerous in terms of possible further support for Netanyahu & Co. – with a stomach ache. But because of the tardiness of the voters in New York, I don’t have to make this important decision this time.