Safe analysis has shown the highest uncertainty in statements by managers for over a year
The safe index for the manager mood fell from +0.61 to +0.26 in May. The decisive factor for this is the more cautious tone in the analyst conferences, because many managers from companies listed in Germany are currently unable to make meaningful forecasts. Your statements from April reflect the growing uncertainty. The managers: above all, have difficulty quantifying customs consequences, they are worried that the consumer climate crumbles and fears future exchange rate dynamics.
In April 2025, US President Donald Trump announced far -reaching import duties, the coalition negotiations in Germany stalled and global tensions increased – all of this led to a decline in the index. Florian HeiderCommentates the scientific director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research Safe: “When the rules of the game become unclear, the companies withdraw. Our data not only show that the uncertainty is now great – it has a new quality: what is now concentrated on certain sectors, now the global economic order affects its traditional role. This change is reflected in our index.”
Several companies waived a forecast for the current year. A manager said that it was rarely so difficult to give a reputable view at the beginning of the year – especially through the developments in world trade, which unsettled both your company and your customers.
This climate of uncertainty causes many companies to postpone decisions. With regard to the industrial sector, a manager said: “(…) We see that customers simply do not know whether things really come into force, and basically keep their current structure for the time being … Therefore there is actually something that we see rather skeptically. It delays certain investment decisions, and we also see a certain burden on consumer confidence.“* Another manager of an industrial goods company noted:”Since customs tariffs change daily or every hour, it is very difficult to get planning security for new investments.“
New measure of uncertainty
Uncertainty will remain a central topic in 2025. From now on, the team led by Alexander Hillert, professor for data science and finance at Safe, systematically measures the uncertainty in the communication of the companies and uses the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of UncertaAnty Words. “Our results show that uncertainty in the analyst conferences in April is as present as in no other month of last year. Terms like ‘unclear’, ‘Volatil’, and ‘risk’ appear more often,” says Hillert.
Die SAFE-Analyse captures the uncertainty based on narrative – how often managers express ambiguity, risk or doubt. It complements existing market -based measurement variables such as the VIX volatility index, which reflects the market expectations regarding future share fluctuations, a qualitative dimension. This means that the analysis makes it possible to find out what managers: inside are insecure.
The main problem is still tariffs, as several statements at analyst conferences show: “The possible consequences of the US import tariffs are still far too unsafe for us to quantify them.“Even companies that are spared from the direct effects of the tariffs were concerned about consequences:”We are very confident that the tariffs will not hit us very hard. But what we do not yet know and what is incredibly difficult to assess what this will mean for our customers or their supply chains.“Consumer goods manufacturers fear the weak demand caused by the general uncertainty and tariffs, as well as the weaker dollar that harms exporters. Some automobile manufacturers consider relocating investments or production facilities to the USA due to the political changes.
The analysis already shows fluctuations in uncertainty in connection with political decisions for the past year. The strong increase in uncertainty in December 2024 coincides with the US presidential election and the end of the German government coalition. In contrast, the decline in March 2025 corresponds to increasing political stability in Germany and the fact that the new US trade policy has not yet affected the global global economic order.
The safe index for the manager atmosphere
The Safe index for the manager atmosphere (Safe Manager Sentiment Index) measures monthly how optimistic or pessimistic managers in Germany comment on listed companies. Developed by Alexander Hillert and its team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research Safe, the index is based on an automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in annual reports and analyst conferences. The index offers valuable insights into the willingness to invest and possible trends in stock returns. The index is based on a rolling three -month window of data.
The other planned publication dates in 2025 are:
- Wednesday, June 11th
- Wednesday, July 9th
- Tuesday, August 12th
- Tuesday, September 9th
- Wednesday, October 8th
- Tuesday, November 11th
- Tuesday, December 9th
* The original statements are in English and in the English communication to find.