Election researchers advocate comprehensive data transparency and see institutes and media as “translators”.
Vienna (OTS) – It is now celebrating its 75th anniversary in German-speaking countries and is still at the center of interest in the super election year of 2024: the most discussed but also the most controversial question in election research Sunday question. Their usefulness, but also their limitations, were the focus of an expert talk by the two industry associations VMÖ (Austrian Association of Market Research) and VdMI (Austrian Association of Market and Opinion Research Institutes) on May 22nd in Vienna.
The summary: the Sunday question is particularly useful as a source of information on the state of public opinion because it enables voters to make more reflective decisions. From the perspective of election researchers and political scientists, it is just the tip of the iceberg. For serious forecasts of election results, a large number of factors such as the political context, the dynamics of election campaigns as well as unforeseeable events and crises would be crucial, which must be taken into account when interpreting Sunday’s question. For the next surveys on the occasion of the upcoming elections, the industry experts advocate greater transparency with regard to the survey methodology and data analysis as well as a balanced interpretation of the results that takes into account statistically given fluctuations and other methodologically based limitations on the significance. In their role as communicators, the media would also be required to put the Sunday question in the correct context.
For Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle, professor of political science at the Carinthia University of Applied Sciences, the effects of the Sunday question on voting behavior are hardly measurable: “In the media reporting, its role is neither presented as a pure snapshot nor is it sufficiently explained to voters in the political context. Without the larger context, the Sunday question would be just as unsuitable for a valid prediction as the newspaper horoscope
“said Stainer-Hämmerle.
For political consultant Robert Luschnik, the Sunday question is a single piece of the puzzle in a holistic campaign management strategy that requires ever shorter-term adjustments in today’s communications landscape. “As a guide for politics, the Sunday question is particularly valuable in the coming weeks and months because it also shows whether the “sails are set correctly”.
. Testing the formulation of political messages, slogans and campaign subjects would certainly make sense, but Luschnik considers it questionable to base one’s own core topics and basic political content on surveys.
“Pollsters are well aware of their responsibility in connection with political survey data – but there is still room for improvement, especially when it comes to the interpretation of the Sunday question and its role in the democratic political process
“, concludes market and opinion researcher Christina Matzka from Triple M.
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