Internal balance positive, outlook cautious

“On January 1st it will be 30 years since Austria became a member of the EU. Membership itself has become an undisputed constant over the 30 years, the most important integration steps are viewed positively and identification with Europe has also increased. However, the perspectives are quite differentiated. Because not all population groups see themselves as winners of integration and the assessment of the current situation in the EU is mixed with concerns and dissatisfaction.”Paul Schmidt, Secretary General of the Austrian Society for European Policy (ÖGfE), analyzes the results of a current ÖGfE survey (online, 1000 respondents, Austria-wide).

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Over the last 30 years, the number of supporters of domestic EU membership has averaged 70 percent; the number of those who prefer an exit from the EU is 22 percent (72 surveys since 1995). The highest support for EU membership was in November 1999 (82 percent) and June/July 2002 (80 percent), the strongest desire for leaving was in June/July 2008 (33 percent) and June 2015 (32 percent). .

Currently 6 out of 10 respondents say that Austria Member of the EU should stay, a quarter are in favor of leaving the EU, 15 percent are unsure of their judgment or do not give an answer.

“The multitude of problems and the associated uncertainty do not stop at the domestic EU mood”said Schmidt. “However, a clear majority continues to support EU membership. A trend that – despite temporary fluctuations in opinion and occasional swings – has persisted throughout the last 30 years of Austria’s EU membership.”

After three decades of EU membership, 47 percent see themselves as both “Austrian and European”43 percent “only as an Austrian” and 5 percent “only as a European.”

“In the past five years, the number of people who see themselves as both Austrian and European has grown by 13 percentage points. For those who identify exclusively with Austria, we see a decline of 18 percentage points. This development shouldso Schmidt, “This is not surprising, because especially since 2019, drastic events have followed each other with the pandemic, economic crisis, Russia’s war of aggression and, most recently, the re-election of Donald Trump, which have brought us together and made it clear that Austria alone can only do little here.”

Almost three quarters say that Introduction of the euro as a common currency had a “very positive” (37 percent) or “somewhat positive” (36 percent) impact on Austria. On the other hand, almost a quarter say that the introduction of the euro was “somewhat” (10 percent) or “very negative” (13 percent) for Austria (remaining 100 percent = don’t know/no answer). Over the past five years, the number of those who view the euro as “very positive” has increased significantly – by 14 percentage points. However, the number of those who rate it as “very negative” has also increased by 10 percentage points.

7 out of 10 respondents feel this way End of passport and border controls as “very” (37 percent) or “somewhat positive” (33 percent) for Austria, an opinion with which just over a quarter do not agree (“somewhat negative”: 14 percent / “very negative”: 13 percent) . Compared to surveys on the 20 or 25 year anniversary of EU accession, the balance has become significantly more positive.

A little more than half summed up that EU expansions were “very” (18 percent) or “somewhat positive” (34 percent) for Austria. Four out of ten respondents do not see it that way and rate the acceptance of new members in the last 30 years as “somewhat” (24 percent) or “very negative” (18 percent) for our country. The opinion on enlargement has improved, especially compared to 2014, but in the last five years the extreme positions (“very positive” – “very negative”) have become more pronounced.

“The introduction of the euro has created an identity for the common Europe like no other measure”says Schmidt. “The fundamental end of passport controls and border barriers within the Union is also highly valued. It is all the more important that Austria’s Schengen veto has now fallen and Romania and Bulgaria can also make full use of freedom of movement. As far as enlargements are concerned, Austria was particularly directly affected by the admission of ten new members in 2004. Today, our neighbors’ membership has long been a reality and part of everyday life.”

According to those surveyed, it is primarily the large companies that benefits from Austria’s EU membership followed by young people in Austria and employees. The results for small and medium-sized companies, on the other hand, are mixed; farmers have benefited the least among the population groups surveyed, while pensioners have, according to local opinion, changed the least as a result of EU accession.

Schmidt: “While EU membership is generally viewed positively in retrospect, the benefits for individual population groups are ambivalent from the perspective of those surveyed. As far as the assessment of the EU’s future is concerned, the generally negative mood in Austria has a clear impact on EU opinion.”

This is how 71 percent of those surveyed see it EU as “weak”61 percent perceive it as “unsafe”. 54 percent consider it to be “anti-social” and opinions are divided on the question of whether the Union is democratic.

This is currently just as low Future confidence in the Union out of. A total of 55 percent are “somewhat” (34 percent) or “very pessimistic” (21 percent) about the future of the EU. 39 percent remain confident and view them with “somewhat” (33 percent) or “very” (6 percent) optimism.

“For the 30th anniversary of Austria’s accession to the EU on January 1st, the current mood is mixed. In order to change this for the better, we need a future narrative that conveys confidence and creates trust, as well as a Europe that can address and implement this in the interests of people, to increase security and prosperity. Austria can and should also get more involved here, and a new federal government will send a visible signal.”

Background:
The current survey was conducted by market (www.market.at) from December 2nd to 5th, 2024 on behalf of the ÖGfE. 1000 people across Austria were surveyed online, Austrian population, 16 to 80 years old, representative of age, gender, region and education. Maximum statistical fluctuation range +/- 3.16 percent. Difference to 100 percent due to rounded values. Missing values ​​at 100 percent = “don’t know / no answer”.

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