Munich (ots) – The time remaining to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement is running out ever faster. This is shown by the annual balance sheet of the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an association of international scientists with strong German participation, in which the LMU geographers Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl were also involved as core authors. Accordingly, fossil CO2 emissions are expected to total 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023, reaching a new record level, 1.1% above 2022 levels.
- The new report from the Global Carbon Project shows: Fossil CO2 emissions will reach a record high in 2023.
- If emissions remain this high, the remaining carbon budget to meet the 1.5°C limit is expected to be used up in seven years.
- Emissions from land use are decreasing slightly, but are still too high to be compensated for by renewable forests and reforestation.
Regionally, the trends were very different: While fossil emissions increased in India and China (+8.2% and +4.0% respectively), they fell in Europe and the USA (-7.4% and -3.0% respectively). %) and slightly also in the rest of the world (-0.4%). For Europe, for example, the authors justify the decline with the expansion of renewable energies and the effects of the energy crisis. Growth in China was partly due to a delayed recovery from the impact of COVID-related lockdowns.
Global CO2 emissions far from the required savings
Together with emissions from land use, global CO2 emissions in 2023 will be approximately 40.9 billion tonnes. This is a far cry from the significant savings that would be needed to achieve the Paris climate goals, the authors say. Although the estimate of the remaining carbon budget is subject to large uncertainties, it is clear that time is running out quickly: if current levels of CO2 emissions continue, the remaining carbon budget could provide a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5° C limit will be used up in seven years and 1.7°C will be used up in 15 years. “It seems inevitable that we will exceed the 1.5°C target – and the last few years have dramatically shown us how serious the consequences of climate change already are. From the heads of state and government at the climate conference in Dubai Significantly greater efforts must be made to reduce emissions in order to at least meet the 2°C target,” says Julia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems at the LMU.
CO2 removal reported for the first time
“Emissions from deforestation decreased slightly, but they are still too high to be compensated for by regrowing forests and afforestation,” says Clemens Schwingshackl, who led the land use emissions estimates in the GCP report together with Pongratz. Currently, around half of emissions from deforestation are offset by CO2 absorption in renewable forests and reforestation. Technical solutions such as so-called Direct Air Capture and Carbon Storage (DACCS), which work independently of vegetation, currently only remove a negligible amount of CO2 from the atmosphere. “For the ‘net zero’ emissions targets, massive efforts to reduce emissions are essential. To compensate for emissions that are difficult to avoid, a strong expansion of CO2 extraction processes will also be necessary,” says Schwingshackl.
El Niño is making itself felt
For 2023, the scientists estimate that around half of the CO2 emitted will be absorbed by sinks on land and in the sea. The rest will end up in the atmosphere, where the CO2 content will rise to an annual average of around 419 ppm (parts per million).
With regard to the land depression, the El Niño weather phenomenon, which began in mid-2023, was probably already noticeable: with 10.4 billion tons of CO2, the land depression absorbed significantly less CO2 than in previous years, in which it absorbed an average of 12.3 billion tons absorbed. “In El Niño years, the land depression weakens because regions such as the Amazon and Southeast Asia are affected by drought and fires,” says Pongratz. The ocean reacts in the opposite way, although the year-to-year variations are less pronounced than on land. After the extraordinary three La Niña years in a row (2020-2022), in which the ocean sink did not increase, an increase in CO2 uptake in the ocean to 10.6 billion tonnes of CO2 is forecast for the first time in 2023.
The scientists suspect that the influence of El Niño on CO2 sinks on land and in the sea will continue to increase in the coming months and will lead to a stronger overall growth in atmospheric CO2 levels in 2024.
The Global Carbon Budget Report, prepared by an international team of more than 120 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update that is based on best practices and is fully transparent. It will be presented on December 5, 2023 at a press conference as part of the 28th UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, where representatives from over 200 countries will meet to discuss the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement.
From German-speaking countries are scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute (Bremerhaven), ETH Zurich, the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research (Kiel), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research (Warnemünde), the Ludwig Maximilians University (Munich), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg), the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Jena), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and from the University of Bern, who contributed to the report with ocean observations, model simulations of the ocean, land and atmosphere as well as analyses.
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Julia Pongratz
Holder of the Chair of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems
Tel: +49 (0) 89 / 2180 – 6652
Email: julia.pongratz@lmu.de
Publication: Friedlingstein et al. (2023) Global Carbon Budget 2023. Earth System Science Data, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023 (active from the end of the embargo)
Additional information:
The press conference at COP28 to launch the Global Carbon Budget 2023 will take place on December 5, 2023 at 10:00 a.m. Dubai time, Press Conference Room 2, Zone B6 – Building 77 (local room name Press 2), Blue Zone, COP28
Questions & Contact:
Claudia Russo
Head of Communications & Press
Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Leopoldstr. 3
80802 München
Phone: +49 (0) 89 2180-3423
E-Mail: presse@lmu.de