Climate research – Don’t forget justice

Every year, in view of the initial quarrels at the world climate summit – for example whether the fossil fuel phase-out really needs to be on the agenda – one wonders what role scientific findings play at this summit.

While every year a flood of new studies change the facts, the same phrases persist in the opening statements of those holding the highest political offices.

“The countdown to limiting the global temperature rise is coming to an end,” said UN chief António Guterres. “If we don’t act now, it will cost us dearly later,” said Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.

Are these quotes from the current summit in Baku, last year’s in Dubai or ten years ago? Essentially, all three answers are correct.

In a poorly attended press conference, the latest climate policy findings finally found a small place at the Baku climate summit. In the “Side-Event 6” conference room, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Johan Rockström, presents the eighth edition of the report »Ten New Insights in Climate Science« before. However, these ten most important new findings in climate research are quite something.

1. Methane emissions are increasing rapidly

Since 2006, emissions of the greenhouse gas methane have increased massively – mainly due to human activities, especially fossil extraction, the waste sector and agriculture. In addition, climate change is also causing natural CO₂-Sources triggered – thawing permafrost ground, for example.

2. Decreasing air pollution has complex effects on the climate

Better air quality has a positive effect on health, but also promotes global warming because the bottom line is that the aerosols have a cooling effect.

3. Increasing heat is making more and more parts of the world uninhabitable

Increasingly frequent and intense periods of heat and the associated humidity – especially in northern India and the African Sahel zone – are currently making the living space of 600 million people increasingly uninhabitable.

4. Climate extremes endanger human reproduction

Climate change increases the risk for pregnant women, unborn children and infants. Climatic changes and extremes threaten to undo decades of health progress in the area.

5. El Niño and the Gulf Stream are a concern

The unprecedented warming of the world’s oceans makes more extreme El Niño events and instability in the Atlantic Overturning Circulation – of which the Gulf Stream is part – more likely. If the Atlantic Overturning Circulation collapses, the Amazon rainforest would likely collapse and significant portions of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere would become uninhabitable.

6. Ecological and cultural diversity strengthens the Amazon rainforest

Deforestation and global warming are leading the Amazon rainforest ever closer to its tipping point. Local approaches are needed to protect the ecological diversity of the forest and local indigenous communities.

7. Critical infrastructure is coming under increasing pressure

The resilience of electricity, food and water supply systems, telecommunications and other infrastructures is put to the test by extreme weather events. There is a risk of cascading collapses of these interconnected networks.

8. Climate-resilient urban development has many synergies

An integrated social, ecological and technological approach to urban planning can make cities more resilient to climate change and at the same time more socially just and livable.

9. The value chains of energy transition minerals need regulation

The increasing demand for metals such as cobalt, copper and lithium in the energy transition poses significant social, ecological and economic risks, especially for the countries of the global south. Smart regulations must keep the advantages for the global south as large as possible and the disadvantages as small as possible.

10. The success of climate policy depends on its fair design

Ignoring the population’s concerns undermines the effectiveness of climate policy and fuels countermovements. The inclusion of civil society and a focus on justice in political decisions strengthen social support.

PIK director Rockström sums up: »One of the key messages of the report is that the planet is losing its health. The planet is losing its ability to absorb the consequences of human trafficking.”

The resilience researcher is referring to the natural feedback effects of the earth system. These can further exacerbate the climate crisis. For example, the melting of ice masses causes bright surfaces on Earth to decrease, which means that a smaller proportion of incoming solar radiation is reflected, which in turn drives warming. This in turn endangers the stability of the Earth system.

Over 80 international experts from social and natural sciences were involved in developing the report. The conversation at the presentation in Baku revolves particularly around insight ten. Rockström also emphasizes that Donald Trump’s election victory in the USA and the political debacle in Germany are due to the fact that justice and participation are neglected in politics.

What is needed are convincing narratives about what a good life can look like in a climate-friendly world, says Norwegian educator Mari Sundli Tveit at the event in Baku. »We can know as much as we want. We need to make it something that can get politicians elected and re-elected. Otherwise, what happened in the USA will happen again and again.