Exporters expect more sales worldwide – top risks are geopolitics, supply chains and a lack of resources – more payment defaults feared
Vienna (OTS) – Despite all the geopolitical tensions, exporters are optimistic about the future: eight out of ten companies (82 percent) expect increasing sales, significantly more than in the previous year (70 percent). This was the result of a current survey by credit insurer Acredia in collaboration with Allianz Trade, in which 3,200 exporters in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Great Britain, the USA and China were surveyed.
Export companies too optimistic?
„At the moment it does not look like a meteoric revival of world trade
“, says Michael Kolb, CEO of Acredia. “Rather, growth in the second half of the year is only likely to make up for the losses of the previous year.” The credit insurer assumes that world trade will increase in value by +2.8 percent in 2024 after declining by -2.9 percent in 2023. That would be well below the long-term average of +5 percent.
The general conditions for exporters are also difficult in Austria. High costs for energy, personnel and administration reduce profit margins. At the same time, there is only weak growth momentum from the most important export markets, especially Germany. Recently, export growth in Austria has lost momentum. According to the WIFO flash estimate, the Austrian economy is likely to have only grown slightly in the first quarter of 2024 (+0.2%).
Top risks: Geo-politics, supply chains and lack of resources
When asked about the greatest risks, 73 percent of companies answered the geopolitical situation. “There have rarely been as many geopolitical tensions and uncertainties as there are now,” says Kolb. “These partly impact supply chains and transport routes, such as the crisis in the Red Sea. The new Brexit border controls are also likely to put supply chains to a tough test.” The fact that 53 percent are thinking about relocating their production for this reason shows how strong geopolitical risks can have an impact on companies.
Supply chains also continue to cause headaches for exporters. Above all, the strong concentration and high complexity are mentioned as challenges. In Austria, three out of four companies also say that they are still struggling with supply chain problems (source: OeKB). Last but not least, the lack of resources – from raw materials to skilled workers to financial capital – is causing major problems for the export industry.
Worse payment practices, more payment defaults, more bankruptcies
Despite the optimistic sales expectations, companies are aware of the tense risk situation – especially with regard to financing. Poor payment practices, increasing payment defaults and a significant increase in bankruptcies are currently threatening the financial stability of many companies.
„Almost 70 percent of companies worldwide only get paid after 30 to 70 days
“, says Kolb. “Due to lower growth, numerous trade disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty, 42 percent of companies worldwide expect to have to wait even longer for their money in the next six to 12 months.
Longer payment terms mean greater pressure on cash flow.” In addition, 40 percent of those surveyed assume that the risk of payment default will increase in 2024. This is in line with Acredia’s forecast that global corporate bankruptcies will rise by nine percent this year.
The credit insurer also sees a yellow alert for the economy in Austria. “At the beginning of the year we assumed that the number of company bankruptcies in Austria would increase to the same extent as globally, namely by nine percent. However, since there were already 27 percent more corporate bankruptcies in the first quarter than in the previous year, it is questionable whether this forecast will hold,” says Acredia CEO Michael Kolb.
The whole Study on global trade can be downloaded here become.
About the Acredia Group
Acredia is Austria’s leading credit insurance and protects outstanding claims at home and abroad with a total value of over 35 billion euros. Acredia is a subsidiary of Oesterreichische Steuerbank AG and Allianz Trade, the world market leader in credit insurance. In 2023, the Acredia Group’s sales totaled 95.2 million euros. As part of the United Nations Global Compact, Acredia has voluntarily committed to align strategy and operations with universal principles on human rights, labor, the environment and anti-corruption and to take action to advance societal goals. www.acredia.at
Questions & Contact:
Sabine Stepanek, press contact Acredia Versicherung AG
Tel: +43 (0)5 01 02-2151
E-Mail: sabine.stepanek@acredia.at
Susanne Wegscheider, agency com_unit
Mobil: +43 664 280 16 18
Email: susanne.wegscheider@comunit.at