War heating – Arctic carbon heats the climate

The planet is heated up at increasing pace in recent years. This is particularly noticeable in the northern latitudes, where the Arctic – according to the projections of the climate models – heats up far above average. Between 1979 and 2021, the temperature in the far north rose four times as quickly as in the global average, such as 2022 Finnish meteorologists in the journal “Communications Earth & Environment” wrote.

The consequences can be observed around the Arctic Circle: the border of the constant frost – the so -called permafrost – withdraws north, and the top layers of the ground frozen for ages. This is not only a problem for the people living there because steep coasts erode on which buildings now founded collapsing and becomes impassable. Rather, the withdrawal of the permafrost also becomes a global problem that increases the greenhouse effect. Large quantities of organic materials are bound in the soil: dead grasses and other plants, remains of mammoths and other animal carcasses. Incidentally, dangerous pathogens such as viruses of the Spanish flu, which fell victim to a few dozen million people in 1919.

1.1 to 1.5 trillion tons of carbon are stored in the permafrost.

–

But that’s a different story. It is more about the organic carbon, which – now thawed – is released by decay. Either in the form of carbon dioxide or – if the decomposition in swamps happens under the air end – as a methane. The latter is compared to the more well -known CO₂ An even more effective greenhouse gas. In other words, the warming caused by the combustion of oil and coal leads to the release of further greenhouse gases, so to a certain extent starts a self -reinforcing process.

Fortunately, this vicious circle is not too pronounced, but it cannot be broken as easily as a new one now Study found an international team around Park So-won from the University of Seoul, South Korea. Rather, the arctic emissions would continue even with drastic reduction in human greenhouse gas production at least until 2300, because the climate system only adapts to the conditions changed by humans. However, a reduction in human emissions would also brake that of the permafrost.

Muckefuck: in the morning, unfiltered, left

Nd.muckefuck is our newsletter for Berlin in the morning. We wake up through the city, are on site when it comes to decisions on urban politics – but always among the people who affect them. Muckefuck is a Berlin coffee length – unfiltered and left. Register now and always know what needs to be argued.

Meanwhile, the arctic potential for additional greenhouse gases is huge. 1.1 to 1.5 trillion tons of carbon are stored in the permafrost, another team of scientists from Sweden, Denmark, Germany and the USA last year calculated. That corresponds to around 4 to 5.5 trillion tons of CO₂ Or, roughly calculated, at least the hundred times of the current annual greenhouse gas emissions. Fortunately, comparatively little has been released so far. In 2019, scientists in the journal “Nature Climate Change” had estimated that around 1.7 billion tons of carbon was lost annually between 2003 and 2017, but the arctic vegetation also took up a billion tons of carbon annually. The region would therefore have already become another greenhouse gas source of Netto about 700 million tons of carbon a year. If this is in the form of CO₂ Current, the 2.6 billion tons of the greenhouse gas, i.e. a little more than 6 percent of global emissions from human activities.

Now the latter numbers are anything but consensus in science. Rather, the view has spread in recent years that the processes in the Arctic are rather slow and the dangers are therefore limited. The new study by Park and her team also assumes significantly lower emissions. Above all, it makes it clear: Even if human society finally stops its greenhouse gas emissions, the earth system will still need for many hundreds of years to level off for a new balance.